Live forecast tools and personal view settings
What are the tools in Live forecast?
Available Tools and View Options will vary depending on your property’s Live forecast set up, the department you are viewing, and your user access rights.
- Pickup Statistics: Click here to review and analyse the booking pattern for the different Segments and the ARR (Average Room Rate).
- Reset Pickup: this will reset whatever is in the Pickup column to 0 (Zero).
- Calculate Live Forecast: Use this for an automated recalculation of pickups. The recalculation can be done based on PMI Prediction or an external forecast file if available.
- Copy to Live forecast: Use this to copy values from Forecast or Budget. This will copy the selected source to the Live forecast, set all dates in the period to manual handling, and save the new Live forecast. You can revert to the automated driver forecast by selecting ‘Reset Pickup’ in the tools menu. For Rooms forecast, this only applies if the Live forecast update method is ‘Auto: PMI Prediction updates daily’, (i.e., not if the mix between import and PMI Prediction is used).
- Seasons: View forecasting seasons.
- Generate Auto Seasons: Applicable to d2o users only.
- PMI Live forecast: A tool that shows a snapshot of your Live forecast for comparison and accuracy checking of the PMI Prediction algorithm.
- Available Rooms: Use this to review adjust the total number of rooms available in the property. PMI will not forecast more than the available rooms set here.
- Different capacity can be set for actual, Live forecast, Forecast and the Budget. For actual and Live forecast, it should always show the same capacity as used when reporting for official benchmarking.
- Configuration settings: Click here to view and adjust settings on how the Live forecast is set up.
- Extract Data: Use this to extract data to Excel. This is useful for in depth analysis.
- Print to File: Use this to export data to Excel, Google Sheets or as a PDF file. See video instructions on how to use this function here.
- Copy (Submit) from Live forecast: Use this to submit the Live forecast to Forecast or Budget. This should be done once a month for the coming 12 months.
- Depending on chain policy, forecast submission is only open during a period of the month, and budget submission during a specific period of the year (budget).
- Copy (Submit) several from Live forecast: Use this to submit multiple Live forecasts to Forecast or Budget simultaneously.
- Depending on chain policy, forecast submission is only open during a period of the month, and budget submission during a specific period of the year (budget).
- Edit Guest Nights Factor: Review and adjust guest nights factor, used to forecast number of guest nights.
- Revise Forecast/Budget: Use this to edit your Forecast or Budget values. This will update them in the Budget and Forecast module.
- Driver based: Review and adjust revenue drivers for the Live forecast.
What are the personal view settings in Live forecast?
These options allow you to adjust what you can see in the Live forecast table. These changes are user specific – any changes here will only change your view, not anyone else’s.
The choices available will vary depending on the type of Live forecast and user rights.
If you choose to display Last Year, you can choose by Date or by Weekday – By Weekday, will compare a Monday to a Monday last year. By date will display the same date last year.
When Forecasting Accuracy is ticked, a new column will appear to the right of the Live forecast column, displaying the difference between last saved Live forecast and the actual result as a percentage.
When hovering over a Budget or Forecasted value in the Live forecast module, a pop-up tool tip will appear displaying when and by whom the budget or forecast was submitted.
Troubleshooting tips
Why is the hours total different in the table and the graph?
The difference in hours comes down to the type of forecast being displayed:
- Management Forecast (Table): This is the forecast set manually by management, based on their expectations and strategic goals. It reflects planned hours to meet operational needs.
- SMART Forecast (Yellow Bar in Graph): Generated by PMI’s SMART system, this forecast uses machine learning and historical data to provide a dynamic suggestion. It factors in monthly productivity goals and current hotel activity.
The variation between these two forecasts highlights the difference between static planning (Management Forecast) and data-driven predictions (SMART Forecast). Use this insight to adjust plans as needed for better alignment with real-time performance and goals.
Understanding zero OTB in Flash report
In PMI, the Flash Report provides a daily overview of revenue figures, both actual and forecasted, across all departments. Users may encounter situations where the Flash Report displays zero On the Books (OTB) data for specific dates leading to concerns about data accuracy.
Clarifying OTB in Flash Reports
It’s important to note that the Flash Report does not directly display OTB figures. Instead, it presents actual revenue data up to the current date and relies on the Live Forecast for future dates. The Live Forecast incorporates OTB data, which represents revenue from existing bookings or sales for upcoming dates. Therefore, if revenue actuals are zero for specific dates, the OTB for those dates will also be zero, reflecting no current bookings or sales recorded.
Manual changes overwritten at Live forecast import
Legacy PMI System
- Issue: Pickup column doesn’t “gray out” when importing Live forecasts.
- Cause: This is the design of the legacy PMI system.
- Effect: Manual changes in the pickup column will be overwritten with each import.
New PMI System
- Preserving Manual Changes:
- Enable Editing: Click the robot icon (if auto-forecasting is enabled) or the import icon next to the day you want to edit.
- Edit Value: Enter your desired value in the pickup column (only editable column for future days).
- Save Changes: Press “Save”.
- Result: Your changes will be preserved even after a new import, indicated by a person with a pencil icon.
How to change covers on historical dates
If you need to update covers on a past date, use the Flash Report instead of Live Forecast. Follow these steps:
- Navigate to the Flash Report.
- Select the historical date you wish to edit.
- Click on the Edit tool (Pen icon).
- Manually adjust the covers as needed.
- Save your changes.
Note:
- Live Forecast is designed for adjusting future covers.
- Flash Reports handle updates for historical data, such as revenue and actual figures.
Excluding segments from driver-based calculations
It is not possible to stop Machine Learning (ML) from including an existing segment in the driver-based calculation. If the ML Live Forecast doesn't align with your expectations, you have the option to manually override it or construct a custom driver to make necessary adjustments.
Enhancing forecast accuracy: Leveraging PMI’s auto forecasts
Discrepancies in the imported Room Night live forecast can impact the generation of live forecasts for arrivals, departures, and stayovers. To address this, it's recommended to utilize PMI's auto forecasts. These forecasts are typically more accurate as they rely on machine learning and historical data. Ensuring the accuracy of the imported Room Night live forecast is crucial, as it directly influences the precision of your live forecasts. Regularly review and adjust your forecasts to maintain their reliability and effectiveness.
Different hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary!
Recommended hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary due to a combination of factors including the monthly productivity forecast, historical staffing patterns, and other factors recognized by the machine learning capabilities of the SMART forecast.
Difference Between Live Forecast and PMI Prediction
If there is a recalculation of the PMI Prediction due to season generation, new file import, or manual calculation, it takes time for the ML algorithms to fully update. The Live forecast values will only update once all dates in the viewed period are completely updated. Thus, there might be a delay, and the Live forecast might not immediately match the PMI Prediction.
Changing revenue for today & tomorrow in PMI
Key Points to Remember:
- Budget & Forecast Module changes totals on a monthly basis only.
- Flash Report allows you to edit historical values.
- Live Forecast allows you to edit future values (including today and tomorrow) by switching to “manual.”
Steps to edit revenue for historical dates (Past)
- Open the Flash Report.
- Expand or select the past date you want to edit; click the plus icon.
- Click the pencil icon (if available) to override the revenue value.
Steps to edit revenue for future dates (Today & Tomorrow)
- Go to the Live Forecast.
- Expand or select the specific date (e.g., today, tomorrow).
- Switch the date to “manual” if required.
- Enter the new revenue value in the editable field.
Can you activate a Live forecast accuracy report in Power BI?
The PMI system integrates Live forecast accuracy into its PMI Index calculations. Although Live forecast accuracy contributes to the PMI Index, it is not explicitly shown as a separate report in PowerBI.