What is Pickup and how is it used?

In the Live forecast there is a column called Pickup. This is the column used to make adjustments to your Live forecast at a daily level. For room/guest nights, a positive value indicates an increase to the OTB (or Driver Based, depending on settings), a negative value indicates a decrease. For Average Room Rate (ARR), it shows expected average selling rate for the forecasted units.

Edit the pickup as needed and save to change the Live forecast. When the OTB or Driver Based forecast changes, the pickup will also change. If the pickup follows the trend you expect, the pickup number will gradually move to zero until the day occurs, while Live forecast remains the same.

For historical dates, the pickup column displays the difference between the actual outcome and your last saved Live forecast. A negative pickup for historical dates tells you how much you missed compared to what was actually achieved that day. If there is a positive pickup figure in room/guest nights, you ended up with more than expected. For ARR, it shows the last saved Live forecast, enabling comparison with the actual result (see the Live forecast column for actual result).

How are pickups calculated?

For historical days:

1. Room nights/Covers/Units – The difference between the last saved Live forecast and the actual result. A negative number means the Live forecast was too high and a positive number means the Live forecast was too low.
   • • Remember – once a day has passed, the Live forecast column displays the actual result.
2. Average Rate – The last saved Live forecast, enabling comparison with the actual result (see the Live forecast column for actual result).
3. Revenue – The difference between the last saved Live forecast and the actual result.

For current/future days:

5. Room nights/Covers/Units – The pickup for future days shows the difference between the last saved Live forecast and the OTB (or Revenue driver, depending on settings).
6. Average rate – Shows the expected average selling rate for the forecasted units.
   • • If you prefer to input the ARR forecast directly in the ARR pickup field (disregarding the OTB value), the setting ‘Use ARR pickup calculator for manual forecasts’ can be disabled and the cell will open for editing in the Live forecast column instead of the Pickup column. More details are in this article.
7. Revenue – The pickup for future days shows the difference between the last saved Live forecast and the OTB (or driver based, depending on Settings).

How to get an auto calculation of Pickups?

Use the tool ‘Calculate Live forecast’ for an auto suggested update to pickups.

For the average room rate you can adjust the expected revenue by changing the percentage. This should only be done if there have been a significant increase/decrease in rates compared to history, otherwise PMI Prediction will take this into consideration and the values in the forecast file (see below) should already have been including normal rate changes. E.g., if your average room rates are up 50% from the same period last year, you change the percentage to 150%; or if it is 50% lower, then you enter 50%.

Click on Calculate, and then OK, if you want to use the suggested update from the grid. If PMI Prediction option is enabled, it will update the live forecast with the latest PMI Prediction (which will be regenerated if the values displayed are not up to date).

If the external forecast is enabled, it will import the forecast file values.

Note that the pickup value from this calculation is not a defined target, but a calculated pickup based on what you currently have as OTB, normal pickups, market situation and development, and booking pace. In other words, what you normally should be able to pick up.

Source – Should you use an external forecast file, you are able to have that integrated into PMI, and it will then be imported daily from that file into PMI.

When you have adjusted the percentage for the ARR, you click the Calculate button, and if the new suggestion looks good, choose Accept.

How to use pickup statistics

Use Pickup statistics to view and analyse the booking pattern for the different segments and the ARR.

The pickup statistics can be viewed as either a table or a diagram.

Pickup graph

Pickup Statistic Table 

Use Pickup statistics to analyse and get better knowledge of the booking pattern at your hotel and find the increase/decrease for the different Room segments OTB, the ARR and the Total Room Revenue. 

In the Graph-Dates view, you can find the booking pattern within a month. Which dates have higher demand? Optimize ARR on these days. Which days are slow, and need more attention to get a higher occupancy? 

In the Graph-Accumulated view, you compare this year’s OTB to the OTB on the same date last year. 

In the Diagram view, you can choose Pace days, and see the difference in the booking pattern for the same period last year. If the green Pickup bar is higher than the gray bar (last year), then you have a more positive booking pattern this year than last year. Is the pattern changing? And for which segments? How is the development of the Average Room Rate in relation to the occupancy? Is there something that needs your attention before it is too late? 

View Options 

1. In the Pickup statistics, you can choose viewing Room nights, ARR or Room revenue 
2. The option Graph dates displays the booking pattern within the month you are viewing. 
3. The option Graph-Accumulated displays the On-The-Books figures this year compared with last year. 
4. Pace days – If you choose Pace days 7 in the Graph dates view, PMI displays the changes in the booking pattern in the last 7 days of the month you are viewing. 

Tools 

You have the option to print to excel.