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Rooms Live forecast: Sense check mode explained

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What is sense check mode? 

Sense check is a feature to help minimize errors in your data. It highlights potential errors and values that seem extreme so you can review, correct or validate as needed. Sense check appears as an option on other pages in PMI that have data tables, including the new view of Rooms Live forecast. 

How to use sense check in Rooms Live forecast 

Sense check will show in both the ‘Table view’ or ‘Graph view’ for Rooms Live forecast. Click on ‘Sense check alerts in graph view’ in the table of contents to the left of this article to jump to that section for specific examples in ‘Graph view’. 

Image: Sense check in Rooms Live forecast ‘Table view’ (points 1-3) 
  1. The sense check will be turned on by default each time you open the Rooms Live forecast pages. You can turn it off for the current session by deselecting the check box. When sense check is on, you will see some cells in the data table are highlighted red or amber.
  2. Hover over any highlighted cell to view an explanation of why it was highlighted and to see the available actions. Note that you will also see the standard status information for that cell in the same pop-up.
  3. There are 3 actions that can be taken for each sense check alert:
      • Keep alert: If you are not able to resolve this alert now but want to keep it available on the page, simply hover off the cell and the alert will stay active.
      • Snooze alert: This will turn off the alert from your view of the Live forecast until there is a new import of data, or until the Live forecast is updated (typically next day). Note that this action is user specific so other users will still be able to see this alert. Use this option if you wish to monitor the OTB data for a specific date for a few days, or to come back to look at the Live forecast after the next update.
      • Remove alert: This will permanently remove the alert from the cell for all users, and, once pressed, cannot be undone. However, if the values for that cell change significantly and cross into a different alert threshold, a new alert will appear. Use this option if you are sure the OTB or Live forecast values are correct.

Review each sense check and decide on the action as part of your daily check of Rooms Live forecast for the current month. It is also possible to review all the sense checks at once, instead of by the day. See section ‘Using the side panel to review all sense check alerts’ for more details.

Image: Different types of sense check alerts in Rooms Live forecast (points 4a-4c) 

4. There are 3 main types of alerts for Rooms Live forecast.

4a. OTB values: This will check if the latest imported OTB for Room nights or ARR is within the range of values that PMI expects for the same day of the week, same season and same lead time from today’s date. The OTB values cannot be edited in the Live forecast, but you can take a closer look at the actual bookings, or the import, if there is a clear error in the data. The alert will appear in both Room nights and Guest nights view. If you are happy with the data, you can ‘Snooze’ or ‘Remove’ the alert to clear it from the page (see details above for these actions).

4b. Live forecast values: This will check the current Live forecast for Room nights or ARR and compare it to PMI’s own prediction for that day. You can adjust the Live forecast if you agree with the alert and want to bring the Live forecast more in line with PMI prediction. If you are happy with the data, you can ‘Snooze’ or ‘Remove’ the alert to clear it from the page (see details above for these actions). These alerts can only be reacted to in Room nights view.

4c. OTB Guest factor: This will check that the number of Room nights and Guest nights are appropriate for each other when compared to the average Guest factor for the same weekday, during the same season. It will flag if Guest nights are less than Room nights or if the Guest factor is significantly higher than the average. If you are happy with the data, you can ‘Snooze’ or ‘Remove’ the alert to clear it from the page (see details above for these actions). This alert is less common but will show on Room nights or Guest nights OTB cells.

Note: It will not show if there is an active OTB value alert for Room nights. Removing or snoozing an OTB value alert will allow any OTB guest factor alerts to show.

Sense check alerts in graph view

When Rooms Live forecast is opened in ‘Graph view’, there are highlights on each date that has a sense check.

 

Image: Sense checks in Rooms Live forecast in ‘Graph view’ (points 1-5)

1. The color of the highlight indicates the highest type of alert for that date. E.g., If there is a mix of priority and low alerts, the date cell will be red. If there are only low alerts, the cell will be amber.

2. Click on a day (date cell or bar in the graph) to open a pop-up with more details about the sense checks for that date.

3. The pop-up shows a data table of the Room night, ARR and Revenue values. Any sense checks for OTB or Live forecast will be highlighted.

4. Hover over any sense check highlight to see the full alert message and possible actions. Carry out any required actions from here in the same way as on the main data table when in ‘Table view’. See details about these actions in section above.

Note that ‘Snooze’ or ‘Remove’ take effect immediately and cannot be undone.

5. Press ‘Update’ before closing the pop-up to update any changes you have made to your Live forecast data.

Using the side panel to review all sense check alerts

If there are a lot of alerts for the month (or selected date period) these can be reviewed in a list rather than by individually hovering over them. This can be done in either ‘Table view’ or ‘Graph view’.

When ‘Sense check’ is enabled in Room night view, there is a side panel to the right of the Live forecast page.

Note: this is not available in Guest nights view.

Image: Access Side panel in ‘Table view’ or ‘Graph view’ to view sense checks as a list.

1. Click the blue triangle to expand the panel.

Image: Side panel gives list of all alerts for the selected date period (points 2-6).

2. With the expanded panel, the data table or graph can still be viewed. Scrollbars at the bottom of the page enable access to any data now hidden by the panel.

3. The table in the side panel lists all the active alerts in your selected period. If there are more than 30 alerts, use the ‘Load more’ button in the side panel to load the next 30 rows.

4. In the data table, scrolling for the main page and side panel can be controlled individually to allow you to view any alert alongside any row of data.

5. The table in the side panel has the following columns:

      • Date: The date being forecasted which has an alert. The list is sorted by date.
      • Data field: The column in the data table which has the alert. The columns are Room nights OTB, ARR OTB, Room nights Live forecast and ARR Live forecast.
      • Value: The actual data value (either number of Room nights or ARR). This cell is highlighted in amber or red to indicate if it is a low priority or high priority alert.
      • Alert message: The same message that would appear if you hovered over an alert. This explains why an alert has been triggered and the expected values.
      • Alert action: (Keep alert, Snooze alert, Remove alert). The default action is always ‘Keep alert’. To snooze or remove any alerts in the list, click on the relevant option for that date.

6. When you click ‘Snooze’ or ‘Remove’ for an alert in the side panel, it will stay in the list until you press ‘Save’ at the bottom of the panel.

Image: Interaction between side panel and main data table (points 7-11) 

7. Alerts that are snoozed or removed in the side panel will immediately be hidden on the data table (or graph) to show progress through the list. They can be re-activated by changing the status back to ‘Keep alert’ in the side panel before you save the panel or by pressing ‘Cancel’ at the bottom of the panel. Once the side panel is saved, changes to an alert status cannot be undone.

8. You can continue to edit your Live forecast (for dates where Manual edit is enabled) while the side panel is open. Changes to your Live forecast data will update your sense check alerts. This is shown both on the page and in the side panel list. The old alert will be grayed out in the list with the new alert (if any) appearing beneath it.

If you have unsaved changes to your Live forecast values on the main page, you will not be able to snooze or remove an alert.

9. Remember to save (or cancel) any changes in the side panel before closing it.

10. Any changes to the data (e.g. Live forecast) will still need to be saved on the main page.

11. Click the blue triangle to close the side panel.

Alert overview (12 months)

There is an overview chart which shows how many alerts there are for each calendar month for the next 12 months. Use this chart as part of your weekly or monthly review of the upcoming months.

The chart is accessed by clicking the 2nd dot at the bottom of the Summary chart panel.

Image: Alert overview chart on Rooms live forecast page 

The timeline shows 12 months starting with the current month. The selected date period for the main page is highlighted in blue on the timeline. Changing the selected date period will update the highlight. Hover over the timeline and icons to see different information relating to the alerts. Click on the timeline to choose that calendar month as the selected date period. This will refresh the whole Live forecast page.

The chart gives 4 main types of information:

Image: 4 different tooltips available on the Alert overview chart 

1. Calendar month summary: Hover over the black timeline to get a pop-up with summary information for that month. This summary shows the current Live forecast values for Room nights along with the Room nights values for Forecast and PMI Prediction.

2. Month live forecast alert: If the Live forecast for a month differs significantly from PMI prediction, this is indicated by a blue triangle on the line. The greater the difference, the bigger the size of the triangle. If PMI prediction is higher than the Live forecast, the triangle points up. If it is lower, the triangle points down. Hover over the triangle to see the details.

3. Live forecast (daily) alerts: A light blue block above the timeline indicates that the calendar month has several (daily) sense check alerts in the Live forecast. This could be room nights or ARR, and a mix of red or amber alerts. The more alerts there are, the longer the bar. Hover over the bar for details of how many red (high priority) or amber (low priority alerts there are in that month.

4. OTB (daily) alerts: A dark blue block above the timeline indicates that the calendar month has several (daily) sense check alerts in the OTB columns. This could be for Room nights, ARR values, or the Guest factor on room nights, and includes a mix of red or amber alerts. The more alerts there are, the longer the bar. Hover over the bar for details of how many red (high priority) or amber (low priority alerts there are in that month.

What is the threshold for each type of sense check? 

There are standard thresholds for each type of sense check. These determine whether the data values are within expectation (no alert), are somewhat outside expectation (low priority/amber alert) or further from expectation (high priority/red alert). 

See the table below for the calculation and threshold for each type of alert.

Troubleshooting tips

This section provides additional troubleshooting advice for readers experiencing specific issues. While it’s packed with useful insights, you may skip it if you’re not facing any related problems.

Why is the hours total different in the table and the graph?

The difference in hours comes down to the type of forecast being displayed:

  1. Management Forecast (Table): This is the forecast set manually by management, based on their expectations and strategic goals. It reflects planned hours to meet operational needs.
  2. SMART Forecast (Yellow Bar in Graph): Generated by PMI’s SMART system, this forecast uses machine learning and historical data to provide a dynamic suggestion. It factors in monthly productivity goals and current hotel activity.

The variation between these two forecasts highlights the difference between static planning (Management Forecast) and data-driven predictions (SMART Forecast). Use this insight to adjust plans as needed for better alignment with real-time performance and goals.

Why can’t I edit the forecast for a closed or previous period?

In PMI, forecast periods like May can become locked after a certain point to protect finalized data. If you have the right role (e.g. Operational Manager, Controller), but still can’t edit, it’s likely due to Period locking being active.

What to do:

Check Period Locking:

  • Go to Advanced settings > Period locking
  • Look for a padlock icon next to May.
  • If it’s locked, click to unlock — this will open the period for editing.

Still can’t unlock it?

  • You may have edit rights, but not access to Advanced Settings.
  • In that case, ask your administrator or HQ finance contact to unlock it for you.

Once unlocked, you can go back to your module (Cockpit, Forecast, etc.) and make the changes you need.

Understanding zero OTB in Flash report

In PMI, the Flash Report provides a daily overview of revenue figures, both actual and forecasted, across all departments. Users may encounter situations where the Flash Report displays zero On the Books (OTB) data for specific dates leading to concerns about data accuracy.

Clarifying OTB in Flash Reports
It’s important to note that the Flash Report does not directly display OTB figures. Instead, it presents actual revenue data up to the current date and relies on the Live Forecast for future dates. The Live Forecast incorporates OTB data, which represents revenue from existing bookings or sales for upcoming dates. Therefore, if revenue actuals are zero for specific dates, the OTB for those dates will also be zero, reflecting no current bookings or sales recorded.

Manual changes overwritten at Live forecast import

Legacy PMI System

  • Issue: Pickup column doesn’t “gray out” when importing Live forecasts.
  • Cause: This is the design of the legacy PMI system.
  • Effect: Manual changes in the pickup column will be overwritten with each import.

New PMI System

  • Preserving Manual Changes:
  1. Enable Editing: Click the robot icon (if auto-forecasting is enabled) or the import icon next to the day you want to edit.
  2. Edit Value: Enter your desired value in the pickup column (only editable column for future days).
  3. Save Changes: Press “Save”.
  • Result: Your changes will be preserved even after a new import, indicated by a person with a pencil icon.

Live forecast warning for One-Off events

Issue: Some dates in the Live forecast may show a red warning triangle, indicating that PMI prediction could not generate an automated forecast for that date.

This usually happens when:
• There is insufficient historical data
• Many historical dates for that day have been marked as outliers or excluded

What to Look For:

  • A red warning triangle appears next to the date in the Live Forecast
  • This icon signals that the system could not generate a forecast
  • Hovering always display a text

What to Do:

  • Click the triangle or review the flagged date
  • Consider whether the activity is linked to a one-off event (e.g., concerts, closures), but keep in mind that if there isn’t enough historical data, this limitation cannot be influenced by the user.
  • If PMI cannot generate a forecast for a specific date, enter a manual value to maintain reporting accuracy — but note that manual forecasts do not influence future automated predictions. Only manually added outliers in the season calendar can affect future forecasts.

Related: To learn how PMI Prediction filters out unusual events so they don’t distort future forecasts, see What is an Outlier?”

How to handle temporary room closures (due to renovation) in PMI

If some rooms are temporarily closed due to renovation, you can adjust your forecasts in PMI to ensure productivity and cost-driver metrics remain accurate.

1. Adjust Cost Drivers in the Forecast: To reflect reduced room availability:

  • Go to the Revenue forecast view (under Live Forecast)
  • Select the affected period (e.g. renovation month)
  • In the Room nights or Available rooms field, enter the reduced number of rooms for the affected dates
  • Save your changes

These changes will immediately update your Live forecast and influence related cost drivers in labor cockpits.

2. Resubmit the Forecast

After adjusting room counts:

  • Click Submit in the Forecast view
  • This ensures that the adjusted forecast becomes the basis for calculations in Cockpits and P&L

3. Check SMART Hours

If SMART scheduling is used:

  • Navigate to the Labor cockpit
  • Verify that SMART hours have adapted to the new room volumes
  • Use Sense check or the visual graph to confirm no unrealistic spikes or dips remain

How to confirm that forecast targets are correctly applied

To ensure forecast targets are properly set and reflected in PMI — whether for a coaching session, planning review, or operational check — follow these quick steps:

Check the Budget & Forecast Module

  • Go to Budget & Forecast
  • Select the relevant month
  • Confirm that productivity targets and hours are entered for all departments

Review the Labor Cockpit

  • Navigate to the Labor Cockpit for the same period
  • Ensure that SMART hours match your targets
  • Look for any red hygiene warnings that indicate missing or outdated inputs

Verify Lock Settings

  • In the Cockpit, check whether productivity or hours are locked
  • Locked values ensure targets won’t shift if cost drivers change

Confirm with Department Heads (if needed)

  • HODs should verify that targets align with real operational needs

Tip: If anything’s missing or needs adjusting, update and save the forecast to apply the changes system-wide.

How to check if forecasts have been submitted for the next 3 months

If you want to confirm whether all hotels have submitted their forecasts for the next three months, the steps depend on your access level.

If you have access to the Planning module:

  1. Open the Live Forecast module
  2. Use the Submit Several or Approve Several options under the Tools menu
  3. The table will show:
    • Each property
    • Latest forecast submission date
    • Status (e.g. Pending, Ready, or Locked)

If you don’t have Planning access:

You can still check forecast status in the P&L Status tool:

  1. Go to ToolsStatus
  2. Select the property and month range
  3. Look at the Room Revenue department (typically Reception or FO)
  4. If the status is Ready or Locked, the forecast has been submitted

For General Managers:

If you only need to check Room Forecast:
(Note: This feature is only available in the current version, not the legacy one)

  • Open Rooms Live Forecast
  • Switch to Table View
  • Scroll through the upcoming three months
  • Use Sense Check to spot any missing or unusual data
  • Submission status via Go to P&L → Tools → Status to confirm whether the Room Revenue forecast is submitted (Ready/Locked) or still Pending.:

Note: Forecasts are considered submitted when their status changes from Pending to Ready or Locked.<

How to change covers on historical dates

If you need to update covers on a past date, use the Flash Report instead of Live Forecast. Follow these steps:

  1. Navigate to the Flash Report.
  2. Select the historical date you wish to edit.
  3. Click on the Edit tool (Pen icon).
  4. Manually adjust the covers as needed.
  5. Save your changes.

Note:

  • Live Forecast is designed for adjusting future covers.
  • Flash Reports handle updates for historical data, such as revenue and actual figures.

Flagging one-off events

Scenario: A single day (concert, trade-fair, planned outage, etc.) will spike or dip demand. If you leave it untouched, PMI Prediction will use normal history and likely forecast too low (or too high). After the day passes PMI will auto-classify it as an outlier, but you still need an accurate forecast today for staffing and revenue planning.

Step 1 – Override the day in Live Forecast

  1. Go to Rooms ▸ Live Forecast.
  2. Select the unusual date.
  3. Switch the cell to manual and enter the room-nights and ARR you expect.

Step 2 – Save / Send to Forecast
Click Save / Send to Forecast (green button).
This locks your manual value and pushes it to Cockpits and labour tools so staffing and cost-drivers follow the adjusted forecast.

What happens next?

  • During the day: all reports, RevPOLU, and staffing hours use your manual forecast.
  • After the day closes: PMI will automatically decide whether that date should be flagged as an outlier. If it is, the spike won’t distort future ML forecasts—no extra action needed.

Remember: manually overriding the Live Forecast fixes today’s planning; it does not teach the model a new pattern. Only the outlier engine—run after actuals arrive—decides whether to exclude the date from future history.

Excluding segments from driver-based calculations

It is not possible to stop Machine Learning (ML) from including an existing segment in the driver-based calculation. If the ML Live Forecast doesn't align with your expectations, you have the option to manually override it or construct a custom driver to make necessary adjustments.

Enhancing forecast accuracy: Leveraging PMI’s auto forecasts

Discrepancies in the imported Room Night live forecast can impact the generation of live forecasts for arrivals, departures, and stayovers. To address this, it's recommended to utilize PMI's auto forecasts. These forecasts are typically more accurate as they rely on machine learning and historical data. Ensuring the accuracy of the imported Room Night live forecast is crucial, as it directly influences the precision of your live forecasts. Regularly review and adjust your forecasts to maintain their reliability and effectiveness.

Different hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary!

Recommended hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary due to a combination of factors including the monthly productivity forecast, historical staffing patterns, and other factors recognized by the machine learning capabilities of the SMART forecast.

Difference Between Live Forecast and PMI Prediction

If there is a recalculation of the PMI Prediction due to season generation, new file import, or manual calculation, it takes time for the ML algorithms to fully update. The Live forecast values will only update once all dates in the viewed period are completely updated. Thus, there might be a delay, and the Live forecast might not immediately match the PMI Prediction.

Changing revenue for today & tomorrow in PMI

Key Points to Remember:

  • Budget & Forecast Module changes totals on a monthly basis only.
  • Flash Report allows you to edit historical values.
  • Live Forecast allows you to edit future values (including today and tomorrow) by switching to “manual.”

Steps to edit revenue for historical dates (Past)

  1. Open the Flash Report.
  2. Expand or select the past date you want to edit; click the plus icon.
  3. Click the pencil icon (if available) to override the revenue value.

Steps to edit revenue for future dates (Today & Tomorrow)

  1. Go to the Live Forecast.
  2. Expand or select the specific date (e.g., today, tomorrow).
  3. Switch the date to “manual” if required.
  4. Enter the new revenue value in the editable field.

Best practice cadence for keeping live forecasts current (for Staff planning)

To ensure your Live Forecast reflects upcoming trade-fair periods — especially for effective staffing — follow this practical cadence:

Monthly Cadence:

Update the Live Forecast early

  • Make adjustments to the Live forecast in the Revenue forecast view
  • Do this as soon as trade-fair dates or demand changes become clear, ideally before the 20th of the current month

Review key dates for next month

  • Scroll to next month in the Revenue Forecast view
  • Check if key trade-fair dates are already reflected (volume, rates, etc.)
  • If not, manually adjust the forecast for those dates

Monitor how changes affect labor

  • Once the Live Forecast is saved, the updated figures feed directly into the Labor cockpits, which use these forecasts to calculate SMART hours

Repeat monthly

  • Revisit the forecast by mid-month for the following month
  • This rolling review ensures staffing is aligned well in advance

Note: There is no need to “submit the forecast to Cockpits” — once saved, the Live Forecast automatically updates the relevant dashboards and labor planning tools.