Live forecast overview
What is the Live forecast?
The Live forecast in PMI is a daily revenue forecast. It is a rolling forecast which should be updated daily depending on the latest expectations due to changes in the market, new reservations, cancellations, etc.
A Live forecast is created for all areas of the business that generate income. This includes room revenue, food & beverage revenue, and other revenue.
The Live forecast updates with actual data for past days, and current Live forecast for future days. This differs from the standard monthly Forecast in PMI, which, once set, does not change.
The Forecast serves as a monthly goal or target. The Live forecast allows you to track whether you are on pace to meet the monthly Forecast. This gives you opportunity to adjust your short-term plan during the month for a greater chance of meeting your goal.
What is the purpose of the Live forecast?
There are 3 main functions of the Live forecast:
- Provides a reliable and up to date 12-month forecast.
- Allows you to track how you are pacing month to date in relation to your month end goal (monthly Forecast).
- A reliable Live forecast allows you to effectively plan other resources using this forecast as a basis. For example, staffing in housekeeping and food purchases for breakfast.
It is PMI best practice to have a Live forecast in PMI for a minimum of 12 months. When a month has ended, update the Live forecast for the same month next year.
This ensures that the property has an updated sales forecast and target for the coming year that covers annual seasonality. With a 12-18 month’s forecast, you are better prepared for the upcoming budget period. PMI Prediction will always forecast the next 16 months rolling.
How is a Live forecast created?
The way a Live forecast is created is dependent on your property’s Live forecast configuration settings. There are 3 main set up modes:
- PMI Automation (PMI prediction and machine learning drivers): The Live forecast is automated based on either PMI prediction or machine learning drivers, depending on department type. There is an option to manually override the prediction for a specific day by using the Pickup/Adjust column.
- Import: The Live forecast is imported daily from an external source. Here is an option to manually override the prediction for a specific day by using the Pickup/Adjust column, until a new forecast is imported.
- Manual: No automatic forecasting is used. The user needs to manually input forecast values for all days.
How to use the Live forecast?
Regardless of which Live forecast option is being used, there are 3 main actions to be taken in the Live forecast module for each department:
Daily: (5 minutes)
- Check yesterday’s actual result compared to the last saved Live forecast. Add a comment if needed.
- Review actuals compared to last saved Live forecast month to date.
- Check the pick-up column for future days to verify that they are realistic. Adjust as needed.
- Save changes
Weekly: (30 minutes)
- Check Live forecast for the next 3 months. Make any adjustments needed and save. (30 mins)
Monthly: (1 hour)
The Rooms live forecast should always be updated first, as most departments base their driver-based forecasts on the rooms department forecast.
Navigate to Live forecast via the sidebar on the home page or in the main dropdown menu.
- Select the relevant department.
- Select the month or period to view.
- Pickup statistics – Click the icon to view and analyze the booking pattern for different segments and average room rate (ARR).
- Tools – Use this to adjust the Live forecast setup, copy Live forecast to Forecast, and export data. Access will vary depending on user rights.
- View options – Choose what information you would like displayed in the Live forecast table. The options available may vary depending on the Live forecast setup.
Live forecast table
- The columns showing will vary depending on set up, selected department, and view options selected. Hover over a column to view a tooltip explaining which data is being shown. Hover over any number in the graph to see more details about that number. Double click on a future day in the PMI predection column to get a more detailed popup.
- The Live forecast and PMI prediction columns show actual results for past days.
- Red line – Indicates today’s date. Days above the red line are historical and cannot be edited. Days below the red line are future dates and can be adjusted as needed.
- Icons – Indicate how the day’s Live forecast was created.
- Person – Manually updated
- Robot – PMI Prediction is being used in Room live forecast. For other departments, it indicates the driver-based forecast is being used.
- To edit an automated row, click the robot icon and manual edits will be enabled.
- If in a driver-based forecast, selecting the robot icon will remove the driver-based value from the Live forecast. Input your desired value in the pickup column.
- Person with a cog – A manually created driver has been used. This is applicable only in driver-based forecasts.
- Paper with arrow – Forecast is imported from external file.
- Red triangle – During the last update, no historical data was found for this day. The forecast needs to be manually input for this day.
- Orange triangle – If the driver value differs too much from what is considered a normal range for the specific weekday and season, the calculated driver value will be ignored and the median value for the weekday/season is used instead.
Instead of a robot icon next to the date, a red warning triangle is displayed, and a tool tip informs the user that the value is based only on historical days.
- Comments – Click to review and add comments to a specific day. Use this to note any deviance from normal volumes and rates. These comments will be retrieved next year from matching weekdays. Days with comments are marked with note pad icons.
How to edit the Live forecast
- The only editable columns in the Live forecast are the pickups columns on future days.
- For past days, the pickups column shows the difference between the actual result, and the last saved Forecast. The Live forecast column shows actuals for past days.
- If your property has a segment level Live forecast, click the plus sign by the date to view the segments and update the date. To make segments visible at all times, select this in the View options.
- Insert a positive number to increase the Live forecast by that amount. Insert a negative number to reduce the number by this amount.
- For Average room rate, the use of the pickups column depends on the configuration setting ‘Use ARR pickup calculator for manual forecasts’ in configuration settings from the tools menu. If enabled, the average room rate pickups column will only apply to the room nights entered in the pickups column. For all other room nights, the OTB Average room rate value will be used. If it is disabled, the Average room rate in the Pickups column will apply to all room nights.
- Once you have made changes, don’t forget to press save.
Color coded figures
Blue – The PMI prediction is constrained by the capacity.
When a number is in blue, this indicates that PMI predicts that the property could sell more rooms than the max capacity. If you hover over the number in blue, the tooltip will show how many rooms it predicts could be sold. In the example above, the hotel has 169 rooms available, but on the 11th, PMI predicted that they could sell 175 rooms if that many rooms were available.
If you hover over the blue figures in the PMI prediction column in the Revenue section to the far right, you can see the difference in revenue that there could have been from selling the extra rooms.
Red – The number of rooms are above the capacity for that date.
If the Forecast, Budget or Live forecast are saved above the capacity, the figures will appear in red. If you hover over the red figures, a tooltip will display the maximum capacity, compared to what was imported and saved.
🔺 Red warning triangle: Indicates that there is insufficient historical data available to generate an automated forecast for this date. A manual forecast must be entered.
Summary
It is possible to select different P&L planning reports, depending on the setup of the property in Planning. Reports may be built up by the user with correct user rights or created by d2o at set up of property in PMI. If connected to Profitbase, the reports in Profitbase will be available in PMI in the drop list.
Intended users
GM, Controller and Heads of Departments.
Instructions
Purple – The day is a holiday.
The Last Year column will be purple for the holiday dates it fell on last year, and the equivalent dates it falls on in the current year. I.e., the holiday’s results from last year will be shown twice, both where it actually was as well as where it will be this year.
In the example above, Ascension Wednesday fell on a different date last year, and is displayed in purple twice, both on the date it occurred last year and the day it occurred this year.
Orange – There is not enough valid source data found for a standard forecast. It is recommended to manually adjust the forecast for this date.
If the PMI Prediction value transitions from orange back to black, you can re-enable automation.
Troubleshooting tips
This section provides additional troubleshooting advice for readers experiencing specific issues. While it’s packed with useful insights, you may skip it if you’re not facing any related problems.
Why is the hours total different in the table and the graph?
The difference in hours comes down to the type of forecast being displayed:
- Management Forecast (Table): This is the forecast set manually by management, based on their expectations and strategic goals. It reflects planned hours to meet operational needs.
- SMART Forecast (Yellow Bar in Graph): Generated by PMI’s SMART system, this forecast uses machine learning and historical data to provide a dynamic suggestion. It factors in monthly productivity goals and current hotel activity.
The variation between these two forecasts highlights the difference between static planning (Management Forecast) and data-driven predictions (SMART Forecast). Use this insight to adjust plans as needed for better alignment with real-time performance and goals.
Why can’t I edit the forecast for a closed or previous period?
In PMI, forecast periods like May can become locked after a certain point to protect finalized data. If you have the right role (e.g. Operational Manager, Controller), but still can’t edit, it’s likely due to Period locking being active.
What to do:
Check Period Locking:
- Go to Advanced settings > Period locking
- Look for a padlock icon next to May.
- If it’s locked, click to unlock — this will open the period for editing.
Still can’t unlock it?
- You may have edit rights, but not access to Advanced Settings.
- In that case, ask your administrator or HQ finance contact to unlock it for you.
Once unlocked, you can go back to your module (Cockpit, Forecast, etc.) and make the changes you need.
Understanding zero OTB in Flash report
In PMI, the Flash Report provides a daily overview of revenue figures, both actual and forecasted, across all departments. Users may encounter situations where the Flash Report displays zero On the Books (OTB) data for specific dates leading to concerns about data accuracy.
Clarifying OTB in Flash Reports
It’s important to note that the Flash Report does not directly display OTB figures. Instead, it presents actual revenue data up to the current date and relies on the Live Forecast for future dates. The Live Forecast incorporates OTB data, which represents revenue from existing bookings or sales for upcoming dates. Therefore, if revenue actuals are zero for specific dates, the OTB for those dates will also be zero, reflecting no current bookings or sales recorded.
Manual changes overwritten at Live forecast import
Legacy PMI System
- Issue: Pickup column doesn’t “gray out” when importing Live forecasts.
- Cause: This is the design of the legacy PMI system.
- Effect: Manual changes in the pickup column will be overwritten with each import.
New PMI System
- Preserving Manual Changes:
- Enable Editing: Click the robot icon (if auto-forecasting is enabled) or the import icon next to the day you want to edit.
- Edit Value: Enter your desired value in the pickup column (only editable column for future days).
- Save Changes: Press “Save”.
- Result: Your changes will be preserved even after a new import, indicated by a person with a pencil icon.
Live forecast warning for One-Off events
Issue: Some dates in the Live forecast may show a red warning triangle, indicating that PMI prediction could not generate an automated forecast for that date.
This usually happens when:
• There is insufficient historical data
• Many historical dates for that day have been marked as outliers or excluded
What to Look For:
- A red warning triangle appears next to the date in the Live Forecast
- This icon signals that the system could not generate a forecast
- Hovering always display a text
What to Do:
- Click the triangle or review the flagged date
- Consider whether the activity is linked to a one-off event (e.g., concerts, closures), but keep in mind that if there isn’t enough historical data, this limitation cannot be influenced by the user.
- If PMI cannot generate a forecast for a specific date, enter a manual value to maintain reporting accuracy — but note that manual forecasts do not influence future automated predictions. Only manually added outliers in the season calendar can affect future forecasts.
Related: To learn how PMI Prediction filters out unusual events so they don’t distort future forecasts, see What is an Outlier?”
How to handle temporary room closures (due to renovation) in PMI
If some rooms are temporarily closed due to renovation, you can adjust your forecasts in PMI to ensure productivity and cost-driver metrics remain accurate.
1. Adjust Cost Drivers in the Forecast: To reflect reduced room availability:
- Go to the Revenue forecast view (under Live Forecast)
- Select the affected period (e.g. renovation month)
- In the Room nights or Available rooms field, enter the reduced number of rooms for the affected dates
- Save your changes
These changes will immediately update your Live forecast and influence related cost drivers in labor cockpits.
2. Resubmit the Forecast
After adjusting room counts:
- Click Submit in the Forecast view
- This ensures that the adjusted forecast becomes the basis for calculations in Cockpits and P&L
3. Check SMART Hours
If SMART scheduling is used:
- Navigate to the Labor cockpit
- Verify that SMART hours have adapted to the new room volumes
- Use Sense check or the visual graph to confirm no unrealistic spikes or dips remain
How to confirm that forecast targets are correctly applied
To ensure forecast targets are properly set and reflected in PMI — whether for a coaching session, planning review, or operational check — follow these quick steps:
Check the Budget & Forecast Module
- Go to Budget & Forecast
- Select the relevant month
- Confirm that productivity targets and hours are entered for all departments
Review the Labor Cockpit
- Navigate to the Labor Cockpit for the same period
- Ensure that SMART hours match your targets
- Look for any red hygiene warnings that indicate missing or outdated inputs
Verify Lock Settings
- In the Cockpit, check whether productivity or hours are locked
- Locked values ensure targets won’t shift if cost drivers change
Confirm with Department Heads (if needed)
- HODs should verify that targets align with real operational needs
Tip: If anything’s missing or needs adjusting, update and save the forecast to apply the changes system-wide.
How to check if forecasts have been submitted for the next 3 months
If you want to confirm whether all hotels have submitted their forecasts for the next three months, the steps depend on your access level.
If you have access to the Planning module:
- Open the Live Forecast module
- Use the Submit Several or Approve Several options under the Tools menu
- The table will show:
- Each property
- Latest forecast submission date
- Status (e.g. Pending, Ready, or Locked)
If you don’t have Planning access:
You can still check forecast status in the P&L Status tool:
- Go to Tools → Status
- Select the property and month range
- Look at the Room Revenue department (typically Reception or FO)
- If the status is Ready or Locked, the forecast has been submitted
For General Managers:
If you only need to check Room Forecast:
(Note: This feature is only available in the current version, not the legacy one)
- Open Rooms Live Forecast
- Switch to Table View
- Scroll through the upcoming three months
- Use Sense Check to spot any missing or unusual data
- Submission status via Go to P&L → Tools → Status to confirm whether the Room Revenue forecast is submitted (Ready/Locked) or still Pending.:
Note: Forecasts are considered submitted when their status changes from Pending to Ready or Locked.<
How to change covers on historical dates
If you need to update covers on a past date, use the Flash Report instead of Live Forecast. Follow these steps:
- Navigate to the Flash Report.
- Select the historical date you wish to edit.
- Click on the Edit tool (Pen icon).
- Manually adjust the covers as needed.
- Save your changes.
Note:
- Live Forecast is designed for adjusting future covers.
- Flash Reports handle updates for historical data, such as revenue and actual figures.
Flagging one-off events
Scenario: A single day (concert, trade-fair, planned outage, etc.) will spike or dip demand. If you leave it untouched, PMI Prediction will use normal history and likely forecast too low (or too high). After the day passes PMI will auto-classify it as an outlier, but you still need an accurate forecast today for staffing and revenue planning.
Step 1 – Override the day in Live Forecast
- Go to Rooms ▸ Live Forecast.
- Select the unusual date.
- Switch the cell to manual and enter the room-nights and ARR you expect.
Step 2 – Save / Send to Forecast
Click Save / Send to Forecast (green button).
This locks your manual value and pushes it to Cockpits and labour tools so staffing and cost-drivers follow the adjusted forecast.
What happens next?
- During the day: all reports, RevPOLU, and staffing hours use your manual forecast.
- After the day closes: PMI will automatically decide whether that date should be flagged as an outlier. If it is, the spike won’t distort future ML forecasts—no extra action needed.
Remember: manually overriding the Live Forecast fixes today’s planning; it does not teach the model a new pattern. Only the outlier engine—run after actuals arrive—decides whether to exclude the date from future history.
Excluding segments from driver-based calculations
It is not possible to stop Machine Learning (ML) from including an existing segment in the driver-based calculation. If the ML Live Forecast doesn't align with your expectations, you have the option to manually override it or construct a custom driver to make necessary adjustments.
Enhancing forecast accuracy: Leveraging PMI’s auto forecasts
Discrepancies in the imported Room Night live forecast can impact the generation of live forecasts for arrivals, departures, and stayovers. To address this, it's recommended to utilize PMI's auto forecasts. These forecasts are typically more accurate as they rely on machine learning and historical data. Ensuring the accuracy of the imported Room Night live forecast is crucial, as it directly influences the precision of your live forecasts. Regularly review and adjust your forecasts to maintain their reliability and effectiveness.
Different hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary!
Recommended hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary due to a combination of factors including the monthly productivity forecast, historical staffing patterns, and other factors recognized by the machine learning capabilities of the SMART forecast.
Difference Between Live Forecast and PMI Prediction
If there is a recalculation of the PMI Prediction due to season generation, new file import, or manual calculation, it takes time for the ML algorithms to fully update. The Live forecast values will only update once all dates in the viewed period are completely updated. Thus, there might be a delay, and the Live forecast might not immediately match the PMI Prediction.
Changing revenue for today & tomorrow in PMI
Key Points to Remember:
- Budget & Forecast Module changes totals on a monthly basis only.
- Flash Report allows you to edit historical values.
- Live Forecast allows you to edit future values (including today and tomorrow) by switching to “manual.”
Steps to edit revenue for historical dates (Past)
- Open the Flash Report.
- Expand or select the past date you want to edit; click the plus icon.
- Click the pencil icon (if available) to override the revenue value.
Steps to edit revenue for future dates (Today & Tomorrow)
- Go to the Live Forecast.
- Expand or select the specific date (e.g., today, tomorrow).
- Switch the date to “manual” if required.
- Enter the new revenue value in the editable field.
Can you activate a Live forecast accuracy report in Power BI?
The PMI system integrates Live forecast accuracy into its PMI Index calculations. Although Live forecast accuracy contributes to the PMI Index, it is not explicitly shown as a separate report in PowerBI.
Best practice cadence for keeping live forecasts current (for Staff planning)
To ensure your Live Forecast reflects upcoming trade-fair periods — especially for effective staffing — follow this practical cadence:
Monthly Cadence:
Update the Live Forecast early
- Make adjustments to the Live forecast in the Revenue forecast view
- Do this as soon as trade-fair dates or demand changes become clear, ideally before the 20th of the current month
Review key dates for next month
- Scroll to next month in the Revenue Forecast view
- Check if key trade-fair dates are already reflected (volume, rates, etc.)
- If not, manually adjust the forecast for those dates
Monitor how changes affect labor
- Once the Live Forecast is saved, the updated figures feed directly into the Labor cockpits, which use these forecasts to calculate SMART hours
Repeat monthly
- Revisit the forecast by mid-month for the following month
- This rolling review ensures staffing is aligned well in advance
Note: There is no need to “submit the forecast to Cockpits” — once saved, the Live Forecast automatically updates the relevant dashboards and labor planning tools.