How to set up a Live forecast: configuration settings
There are several ways to configure the Live forecast which will affect how the Live forecast is calculated.
Changes are done using configuration settings via the tools icon in the top right corner of the screen. This is only visible to users with appropriate access rights.
Room revenue Live forecast
- Enable Live Forecast Arrivals, Departures, Stay-Overs: Enable this to activate the forecast module for arrivals, departures and stay-overs. If not activated, OTB values are used in cockpits.
- Segments: Enable this to use segments.
- Forecast on day total: This will show Segments as information only, and forecasting will be done on day total. If this is not selected, forecasts will be done at segment level.
- OTB: Enable to show On The Books in Live forecast view.
- Tentative OTB – Room nights: Show tentative OTB as an information column in the Live forecast. This will not affect forecast.
- Tentative OTB – Revenue: Room nights: Show tentative OTB as an information column in the Live forecast. This will not affect forecast.
- Live forecast update method
- Auto: PMI prediction updates daily.
- PMI will automatically create the Live forecast using PMI Prediction. The Live forecast can be edited for a day if needed by using the pickup column.
- Auto: Updates when new external file is imported: This updates the live forecast when an external forecast file is imported to PMI. This is only possible if an import file is available. The forecast can then be manually overwritten by using the pick-up column. PMI prediction will still be visible as a reference column.
- Manual: User updates manually. No automatic forecasting is used. User needs to manually input forecast values for all days.
- Auto: PMI prediction updates daily.
- Decimals used: Input the number of decimal places that should be visible in Live forecast.
- Exclude from RevPOLU: This is useful, for example, when creating a Live forecast for revenues that are not a part of normal operations. E.g., rental income, membership fees etc.
- Allow negative Live forecast: This can be used, for example, if your segment or profit center is used for corrections, customer reimbursements, etc.
- Use ARR pickup calculator for manual forecasts: Selecting this will include OTB ARR in Live forecast. If not selected, the user will need to manually enter expected end-result for ARR.
Other revenue Live forecasts
- Enable Live Forecast import: Use this to import Live forecast from an external source.
- Food revenue: Use this to select how food revenue forecast should be calculated. It is either based on last year, last x days, or a percentage of total revenue.
- OTB: Enable to use On the Books data in the Live forecast. Depending on the next settings it can be used as forecast, only for information, or in combination with a driver.
- Tentative OTB: Revenue: Enable to view tentative OTB in a column. This will not affect the forecast
- Information only: Enable this to view OTB in Live forecast page, without it affecting the forecast
- Driver based: Forecast will be automated based on selected driver. The Live forecast can be manually overwritten either by using the pick-up column, or by selecting the robot icon by the date in the Live forecast table.
- Use PMI machine learning algorithms: Use the automated detection of drivers done machine learning algorithms. This is recommended if you have more than 1 year of historic data in PMI. If disabled, a manual driver must be created.
- Auto-save when driver updates: When enabled, the Live forecast will be updated and saved automatically if any of the sources used in the driver are updated. Otherwise, the Live forecast will have to be manually saved to include any changes.
- If ML (Machine Learning) drivers are used, this option is greyed out: It will always be automatically updated.
- Use only OTB for the next X days: For the X number of days, the driver value will be disregarded and the OTB value used as the base for live forecast. How many days in advanced do you expect to still sell more? Within the X days specified, you don’t expect more to be sold.
- Use only OTB when above X% of driver value: If the OTB value is X % of the driver value, the driver will be disregarded and the OTB is used instead (range 0-99%).
- Decimals used: Set the number of decimal places you want to see in the Live forecast values.
- Exclude from RevPOLU: This is useful, for, example when creating a Live forecast for revenues that are not a part of normal operations. E.g., rental income, membership fees etc.
- Allow negative Live forecast: This can be used, for example if your segment or profit center is used for corrections, customer reimbursements etc.
Troubleshooting tips
This section provides additional troubleshooting advice for readers experiencing specific issues. While it’s packed with useful insights, you may skip it if you’re not facing any related problems.
Why is the hours total different in the table and the graph?
The difference in hours comes down to the type of forecast being displayed:
- Management Forecast (Table): This is the forecast set manually by management, based on their expectations and strategic goals. It reflects planned hours to meet operational needs.
- SMART Forecast (Yellow Bar in Graph): Generated by PMI’s SMART system, this forecast uses machine learning and historical data to provide a dynamic suggestion. It factors in monthly productivity goals and current hotel activity.
The variation between these two forecasts highlights the difference between static planning (Management Forecast) and data-driven predictions (SMART Forecast). Use this insight to adjust plans as needed for better alignment with real-time performance and goals.
Understanding zero OTB in Flash report
In PMI, the Flash Report provides a daily overview of revenue figures, both actual and forecasted, across all departments. Users may encounter situations where the Flash Report displays zero On the Books (OTB) data for specific dates leading to concerns about data accuracy.
Clarifying OTB in Flash Reports
It’s important to note that the Flash Report does not directly display OTB figures. Instead, it presents actual revenue data up to the current date and relies on the Live Forecast for future dates. The Live Forecast incorporates OTB data, which represents revenue from existing bookings or sales for upcoming dates. Therefore, if revenue actuals are zero for specific dates, the OTB for those dates will also be zero, reflecting no current bookings or sales recorded.
Manual changes overwritten at Live forecast import
Legacy PMI System
- Issue: Pickup column doesn’t “gray out” when importing Live forecasts.
- Cause: This is the design of the legacy PMI system.
- Effect: Manual changes in the pickup column will be overwritten with each import.
New PMI System
- Preserving Manual Changes:
- Enable Editing: Click the robot icon (if auto-forecasting is enabled) or the import icon next to the day you want to edit.
- Edit Value: Enter your desired value in the pickup column (only editable column for future days).
- Save Changes: Press “Save”.
- Result: Your changes will be preserved even after a new import, indicated by a person with a pencil icon.
How to change covers on historical dates
If you need to update covers on a past date, use the Flash Report instead of Live Forecast. Follow these steps:
- Navigate to the Flash Report.
- Select the historical date you wish to edit.
- Click on the Edit tool (Pen icon).
- Manually adjust the covers as needed.
- Save your changes.
Note:
- Live Forecast is designed for adjusting future covers.
- Flash Reports handle updates for historical data, such as revenue and actual figures.
Excluding segments from driver-based calculations
It is not possible to stop Machine Learning (ML) from including an existing segment in the driver-based calculation. If the ML Live Forecast doesn't align with your expectations, you have the option to manually override it or construct a custom driver to make necessary adjustments.
Enhancing forecast accuracy: Leveraging PMI’s auto forecasts
Discrepancies in the imported Room Night live forecast can impact the generation of live forecasts for arrivals, departures, and stayovers. To address this, it's recommended to utilize PMI's auto forecasts. These forecasts are typically more accurate as they rely on machine learning and historical data. Ensuring the accuracy of the imported Room Night live forecast is crucial, as it directly influences the precision of your live forecasts. Regularly review and adjust your forecasts to maintain their reliability and effectiveness.
Different hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary!
Recommended hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary due to a combination of factors including the monthly productivity forecast, historical staffing patterns, and other factors recognized by the machine learning capabilities of the SMART forecast.
Difference Between Live Forecast and PMI Prediction
If there is a recalculation of the PMI Prediction due to season generation, new file import, or manual calculation, it takes time for the ML algorithms to fully update. The Live forecast values will only update once all dates in the viewed period are completely updated. Thus, there might be a delay, and the Live forecast might not immediately match the PMI Prediction.
Changing revenue for today & tomorrow in PMI
Key Points to Remember:
- Budget & Forecast Module changes totals on a monthly basis only.
- Flash Report allows you to edit historical values.
- Live Forecast allows you to edit future values (including today and tomorrow) by switching to “manual.”
Steps to edit revenue for historical dates (Past)
- Open the Flash Report.
- Expand or select the past date you want to edit; click the plus icon.
- Click the pencil icon (if available) to override the revenue value.
Steps to edit revenue for future dates (Today & Tomorrow)
- Go to the Live Forecast.
- Expand or select the specific date (e.g., today, tomorrow).
- Switch the date to “manual” if required.
- Enter the new revenue value in the editable field.
Can you activate a Live forecast accuracy report in Power BI?
The PMI system integrates Live forecast accuracy into its PMI Index calculations. Although Live forecast accuracy contributes to the PMI Index, it is not explicitly shown as a separate report in PowerBI.