SMART forecast explained
What is a SMART forecast?
The SMART forecast in PMI is a daily breakdown of your monthly productivity/hours forecast . SMART forecast allocates the month forecast to each day based on the expected activity levels of hotel using the cost driver forecast and historic staffing patterns. This can be used to plan staff schedules in line with the monthly forecast.
This is displayed in the labor cockpits to review when planning staff schedules. It is shown as the yellow line on the graphs.
What is the purpose of SMART forecast?
SMART provides a daily allocation of the hours determined in the monthly forecast by either the forecast hours or forecast productivity (depending on ‘Locked target’ setting).
SMART Forecast uses Machine Learning (ML) to recognize trends from previous periods and allocate the daily hours appropriately.
Use this as a guide to how many hours you should schedule each day in order to meet the monthly forecast set, while ensuring the number of hours is in line with the department’s needs on the day.
SMART Forecast is used for productive hours only. This does not account for any non-productive hours (training, fire alarm, sick leave etc.)
How is SMART calculated?
The calculation depends on the ‘Locked target’ specified in the cockpit settings. This can be reviewed and updated by users with admin rights.
The locked target should be set to ‘Productivity’ for operational departments, whose hours will fluctuate based on the activity of the hotel. Lock the target on Hours for admin departments where the staffing is fixed, and hours do not vary much.
If ‘Locked target’ in Tools is set to ‘Productivity’:
SMART hours forecast for the month = Primary cost driver forecast divided by productivity forecast
For example, a hotel expects to have 100 room nights (primary cost driver) this month, and the Housekeeping target is to clean 2 rooms per labor hour (productivity forecast). So SMART forecast would calculate Housekeeping hours needed for the month as 100/2 = 50 hours.
SMART Forecast then uses Machine Learning to allocate the hours per day. It looks at the expected activity each day, as well as trends from previous periods to determine a daily staffing recommendation.
If ‘Locked target’ is set to ‘Hours’:
SMART productivity forecast for the month = Primary cost driver forecast divided by hours forecast
This is displayed as ‘SMART Month-end’ in the cockpit.
SMART Forecast then uses Machine Learning to allocate the hours per day. It looks at the expected activity each day, as well as trends from previous periods to determine the daily staffing recommendation. The daily forecast is displayed in the graph, and are summed together to get the SMART MTD value.
For example, if there are many check-outs on a Sunday, but housekeeping usually waits until Monday to clean all rooms, the SMART Forecast will recognize this and suggest more hours on the Monday, even if activity levels are higher on the Sunday.
The same logic applies to SMART Budget.
SMART Last year hours = current month cost driver divided by last year’s actual productivity
This can be used to see if your current productivity has improved or not compared to last year.
Please note – Due to COVID-19, historic data from March 2020 up to (and including) February, 2022 are disregarded when analyzing historic data to predict future trends.
SMART MTD: The sum of the SMART forecast for the month to date days.
SMART Month end: The set monthly productivity/hours forecast.
Summary of what PMI considers when calculating hours in the SMART forecast.
- The monthly productivity forecast.
- Expected activity levels.
- Historical staffing patterns.
- The use of primary and other cost drivers to identify trends and allocate daily hours.
SMART settings
Use only primary cost driver in SMART
SMART looks at a wide range of cost drivers to identify historic trends and allocate daily hours based on history. There is an option to change SMART to use only the primary cost driver to allocate daily hours.
This is useful when;
- Staffing patterns have recently changed, thereby making the historic trends an inaccurate reference point for scheduling future hours, or
- The department should staff only based on the primary cost driver for the same day, and nothing else.
- For example, a standard restaurant without the need to prepare anything in advance and unable to save work for coming days.
- Departments are outsourced as cost usually solely depends on the cost driver level according to contract.
- This setting will be enabled as default for departments that have the cockpit type setting on ‘Outsourced’
‘Use only primary cost driver in SMART’ can be enabled by users with Administrator rights. Select the Tools icon on the relevant cockpit, and choose Settings. To check if this setting is being used, hover over the SMART forecast legend icon in the main graph.
Min/Max
This setting allows you to manually set the minimum and maximum number of hours that SMART should calculate on any given day. SMART will not forecast outside of these settings.
This is useful if you have little or no historic data in PMI, or if your staffing patterns have changed significantly compared to past periods.
You can also set Min/Max hours for a holiday season. For example, if you will be closed over the Christmas period, you can set the Max hours to 0 to ensure SMART will not allocate hours on those days.
Troubleshooting tips
This section provides additional troubleshooting advice for readers experiencing specific issues. While it’s packed with useful insights, you may skip it if you’re not facing any related problems.
Why is the hours total different in the table and the graph?
The difference in hours comes down to the type of forecast being displayed:
- Management Forecast (Table): This is the forecast set manually by management, based on their expectations and strategic goals. It reflects planned hours to meet operational needs.
- SMART Forecast (Yellow Bar in Graph): Generated by PMI’s SMART system, this forecast uses machine learning and historical data to provide a dynamic suggestion. It factors in monthly productivity goals and current hotel activity.
The variation between these two forecasts highlights the difference between static planning (Management Forecast) and data-driven predictions (SMART Forecast). Use this insight to adjust plans as needed for better alignment with real-time performance and goals.
Why can’t I edit the forecast for a closed or previous period?
In PMI, forecast periods like May can become locked after a certain point to protect finalized data. If you have the right role (e.g. Operational Manager, Controller), but still can’t edit, it’s likely due to Period locking being active.
What to do:
Check Period Locking:
- Go to Advanced settings > Period locking
- Look for a padlock icon next to May.
- If it’s locked, click to unlock — this will open the period for editing.
Still can’t unlock it?
- You may have edit rights, but not access to Advanced Settings.
- In that case, ask your administrator or HQ finance contact to unlock it for you.
Once unlocked, you can go back to your module (Cockpit, Forecast, etc.) and make the changes you need.
Understanding zero OTB in Flash report
In PMI, the Flash Report provides a daily overview of revenue figures, both actual and forecasted, across all departments. Users may encounter situations where the Flash Report displays zero On the Books (OTB) data for specific dates leading to concerns about data accuracy.
Clarifying OTB in Flash Reports
It’s important to note that the Flash Report does not directly display OTB figures. Instead, it presents actual revenue data up to the current date and relies on the Live Forecast for future dates. The Live Forecast incorporates OTB data, which represents revenue from existing bookings or sales for upcoming dates. Therefore, if revenue actuals are zero for specific dates, the OTB for those dates will also be zero, reflecting no current bookings or sales recorded.
Manual changes overwritten at Live forecast import
Legacy PMI System
- Issue: Pickup column doesn’t “gray out” when importing Live forecasts.
- Cause: This is the design of the legacy PMI system.
- Effect: Manual changes in the pickup column will be overwritten with each import.
New PMI System
- Preserving Manual Changes:
- Enable Editing: Click the robot icon (if auto-forecasting is enabled) or the import icon next to the day you want to edit.
- Edit Value: Enter your desired value in the pickup column (only editable column for future days).
- Save Changes: Press “Save”.
- Result: Your changes will be preserved even after a new import, indicated by a person with a pencil icon.
Live forecast warning for One-Off events
Issue: Some dates in the Live forecast may show a red warning triangle, indicating that PMI prediction could not generate an automated forecast for that date.
This usually happens when:
• There is insufficient historical data
• Many historical dates for that day have been marked as outliers or excluded
• The date represents a new pattern PMI hasn’t seen before
What to Look For:
- A red warning triangle appears next to the date in the Live Forecast
- This icon signals that the system could not generate a forecast
- Hovering always display a text
What to Do:
- Click the triangle or review the flagged date
- Consider whether the activity is linked to a one-off event (e.g., concerts, closures), but keep in mind that if there isn’t enough historical data, this limitation cannot be influenced by the user.
- If PMI cannot generate a forecast for a specific date, enter a manual value to maintain reporting accuracy — but note that manual forecasts do not influence future automated predictions. Only manually added outliers in the season calendar can affect future forecasts.
Related: To learn how PMI Prediction filters out unusual events so they don’t distort future forecasts, see What is an Outlier?”
How to handle temporary room closures (due to renovation) in PMI
If some rooms are temporarily closed due to renovation, you can adjust your forecasts in PMI to ensure productivity and cost-driver metrics remain accurate.
1. Adjust Cost Drivers in the Forecast: To reflect reduced room availability:
- Go to the Revenue forecast view (under Live Forecast)
- Select the affected period (e.g. renovation month)
- In the Room nights or Available rooms field, enter the reduced number of rooms for the affected dates
- Save your changes
These changes will immediately update your Live forecast and influence related cost drivers in labor cockpits.
2. Resubmit the Forecast
After adjusting room counts:
- Click Submit in the Forecast view
- This ensures that the adjusted forecast becomes the basis for calculations in Cockpits and P&L
3. Check SMART Hours
If SMART scheduling is used:
- Navigate to the Labor cockpit
- Verify that SMART hours have adapted to the new room volumes
- Use Sense check or the visual graph to confirm no unrealistic spikes or dips remain
How to confirm that forecast targets are correctly applied
To ensure forecast targets are properly set and reflected in PMI — whether for a coaching session, planning review, or operational check — follow these quick steps:
Check the Budget & Forecast Module
- Go to Budget & Forecast
- Select the relevant month
- Confirm that productivity targets and hours are entered for all departments
Review the Labor Cockpit
- Navigate to the Labor Cockpit for the same period
- Ensure that SMART hours match your targets
- Look for any red hygiene warnings that indicate missing or outdated inputs
Verify Lock Settings
- In the Cockpit, check whether productivity or hours are locked
- Locked values ensure targets won’t shift if cost drivers change
Confirm with Department Heads (if needed)
- HODs should verify that targets align with real operational needs
Tip: If anything’s missing or needs adjusting, update and save the forecast to apply the changes system-wide.
How to check if forecasts have been submitted for the next 3 months
If you want to confirm whether all hotels have submitted their forecasts for the next three months, the steps depend on your access level.
If you have access to the Planning module:
- Open the Live Forecast module
- Use the Submit Several or Approve Several options under the Tools menu
- The table will show:
- Each property
- Latest forecast submission date
- Status (e.g. Pending, Ready, or Locked)
If you don’t have Planning access:
You can still check forecast status in the P&L Status tool:
- Go to Tools → Status
- Select the property and month range
- Look at the Room Revenue department (typically Reception or FO)
- If the status is Ready or Locked, the forecast has been submitted
For General Managers:
If you only need to check Room Forecast:
- Open Rooms Live Forecast
- Switch to Table View
- Scroll through the upcoming three months
- Use Sense Check to spot any missing or unusual data
- Submission status can still be checked in Tools → Status
Note: Forecasts are considered submitted when their status changes from Pending to Ready or Locked.
How to change covers on historical dates
If you need to update covers on a past date, use the Flash Report instead of Live Forecast. Follow these steps:
- Navigate to the Flash Report.
- Select the historical date you wish to edit.
- Click on the Edit tool (Pen icon).
- Manually adjust the covers as needed.
- Save your changes.
Note:
- Live Forecast is designed for adjusting future covers.
- Flash Reports handle updates for historical data, such as revenue and actual figures.
Excluding segments from driver-based calculations
It is not possible to stop Machine Learning (ML) from including an existing segment in the driver-based calculation. If the ML Live Forecast doesn't align with your expectations, you have the option to manually override it or construct a custom driver to make necessary adjustments.
Enhancing forecast accuracy: Leveraging PMI’s auto forecasts
Discrepancies in the imported Room Night live forecast can impact the generation of live forecasts for arrivals, departures, and stayovers. To address this, it's recommended to utilize PMI's auto forecasts. These forecasts are typically more accurate as they rely on machine learning and historical data. Ensuring the accuracy of the imported Room Night live forecast is crucial, as it directly influences the precision of your live forecasts. Regularly review and adjust your forecasts to maintain their reliability and effectiveness.
Different hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary!
Recommended hours for similar revenue on different dates can vary due to a combination of factors including the monthly productivity forecast, historical staffing patterns, and other factors recognized by the machine learning capabilities of the SMART forecast.
Difference Between Live Forecast and PMI Prediction
If there is a recalculation of the PMI Prediction due to season generation, new file import, or manual calculation, it takes time for the ML algorithms to fully update. The Live forecast values will only update once all dates in the viewed period are completely updated. Thus, there might be a delay, and the Live forecast might not immediately match the PMI Prediction.
Changing revenue for today & tomorrow in PMI
Key Points to Remember:
- Budget & Forecast Module changes totals on a monthly basis only.
- Flash Report allows you to edit historical values.
- Live Forecast allows you to edit future values (including today and tomorrow) by switching to “manual.”
Steps to edit revenue for historical dates (Past)
- Open the Flash Report.
- Expand or select the past date you want to edit; click the plus icon.
- Click the pencil icon (if available) to override the revenue value.
Steps to edit revenue for future dates (Today & Tomorrow)
- Go to the Live Forecast.
- Expand or select the specific date (e.g., today, tomorrow).
- Switch the date to “manual” if required.
- Enter the new revenue value in the editable field.
Can you activate a Live forecast accuracy report in Power BI?
The PMI system integrates Live forecast accuracy into its PMI Index calculations. Although Live forecast accuracy contributes to the PMI Index, it is not explicitly shown as a separate report in PowerBI.
Best practice cadence for keeping live forecasts current (for Staff planning)
To ensure your Live Forecast reflects upcoming trade-fair periods — especially for effective staffing — follow this practical cadence:
Monthly Cadence:
Update the Live Forecast early
- Make adjustments to the Live forecast in the Revenue forecast view
- Do this as soon as trade-fair dates or demand changes become clear, ideally before the 20th of the current month
Review key dates for next month
- Scroll to next month in the Revenue Forecast view
- Check if key trade-fair dates are already reflected (volume, rates, etc.)
- If not, manually adjust the forecast for those dates
Monitor how changes affect labor
- Once the Live Forecast is saved, the updated figures feed directly into the Labor cockpits, which use these forecasts to calculate SMART hours
Repeat monthly
- Revisit the forecast by mid-month for the following month
- This rolling review ensures staffing is aligned well in advance
Note: There is no need to “submit the forecast to Cockpits” — once saved, the Live Forecast automatically updates the relevant dashboards and labor planning tools.