Rooms live forecast: How to work with auto Live forecast
What is PMI prediction in the Rooms live forecast?
PMI provides an automated daily revenue forecast to allow for easy and accurate revenue forecasting. It uses historical data to identify seasons and trends, and adapts to specific properties over time, based on their pattern. For more details, please see the article PMI prediction explanation.
The auto-forecast is designed to be a reliable starting point. There may, however, be new trends or changes that the auto-forecast is unable to predict. For these instances, you can override the day’s forecast with a manual input.
The way to work with the Live forecast when the automated forecast is enabled is described below.
Step 1: Understand the PMI Prediction value
If PMI Prediction has a higher or lower forecast than you expect, a good starting point to understanding why the specific forecast has been generated is by looking at the PMI Prediction details.
Click on the PMI Prediction value and a popup window will appear that displays the details used to generate the forecast value. It includes when the forecast was generated, the lead time, what season the date is in, and the models that have been used for Rooms as well as ARR. In addition, the historical dates that are available for the algorithms to use are also displayed, ranked in order of similarity. Each of the dates shows the OTB status they had at the same lead time, the actual result for the date, and the pickup/change the dates had.
Remember that when working with the auto Live forecast, you are still responsible for the forecast, so if you disagree with the prediction, then take over the day and manually override the PMI Prediction suggestion.
Step 2: Make manual changes if required
To make a manual change for a future day, click on the robot icon at the end of the row by that day, and the cell will open for editing. The robot icon will then change to a person icon, indicating that a manual change has been made on that day.
If two departments are combined, the + sign at the left end of the row needs to be clicked to expand the row for editing.
If you decide to go back to auto-forecasting for that day, click on the person icon and it will change back to the robot icon and save. It will start using PMI Prediction as Live forecast after the next automated update.
When should I consider overriding the automatic forecast?
There are certain instances where it may be appropriate to override the auto forecast. Here are some common examples:
- New events: Any dates where an event is taking place which has very little or no comparable history. This could be a concert, convention or conference. Usually, the average room rates OTB during such events are so much higher than normal for the period that the algorithms judge them to be incorrect. As a result, the suggested ARR is lower than what should be expected.
- Public holidays: Days just before, during, and directly after, public holidays. These sometimes have very little history that can be used, and you should therefore take an extra look at the suggested forecasts for these days.
- Short school holidays (e.g., autumn break): For properties with a short booking window, this usually need to be handled manually.
- Closed periods: If a property closes for a period, PMI Prediction will recognize this if the property is always closed during the same period. However, the start and end day might vary from year to year which cannot be known by the algorithms. If there are rooms OTB inside 28 days before a closed period and historically OTB hasn’t occurred on the same lead time, PMI Prediction will interpret this as the property will be open. Since there is no historical pickup for a closed period, the forecast will be equal to the OTB. In these cases, the dates should be handled manually and either change the dates to zero room nights if the property is closed, or, enter a more realistic Live forecast than the OTB value. If a property is opened/closed on different periods from year to year, the algorithms cannot establish any pattern for the closed periods. Dates that will be closed this year but were not closed last year must be handled manually.
- Changes to capacity: If the capacity at the property changes, the new capacity and period must be entered in ‘Available rooms’ as soon as possible and before it occurs (enter a future start date). The same applies if a property is doing refurbishing and has fluctuating capacity during a period, where the start and end date for each different available capacity should be set. When the capacity changes, it will take a few weeks for the algorithms to adapt. Contact your PMI support for help if needed.
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Getting started
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- Arrivals/Departures
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Video tutorials
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- Administration Labor cockpit [14:49]
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- Schedule 5/8 How to add shift codes to team members [3:41]
- Schedule 6/8 How to create a rotating schedule [3:20]
- Schedule 7/8 How to replace shift codes for a period [2:00]
- Schedule 8/8 How to create split shifts between departments [2:42]
- Stewarding Labor cockpit [11:38]
- Timesheet Onboarding [4:14]
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- Administration Labor cockpit [14:49]
- Bar and Pub Labor cockpit [12:21]
- Breakfast Labor cockpit [12:05]
- Food cost cockpit [6:21]
- Front office Labor cockpit [12:05]
- Housekeeping Labor cockpit [11:20]
- Kitchen Labor cockpit [11:28]
- Labor Cockpit Onboarding [18:16]
- Labor cockpit overview [3:12]
- Repair and Maintenance Labor cockpit [13:01]
- Restaurant Labor cockpit [12:30]
- Schedule 1/8 Navigation [5:12]
- Schedule 2/8 How to create a labor cockpit schedule [4:29]
- Schedule 3/8 How to add a team member [2:07]
- Schedule 4/8 How to create a shift code [3:30]
- Schedule 5/8 How to add shift codes to team members [3:41]
- Schedule 6/8 How to create a rotating schedule [3:20]
- Schedule 7/8 How to replace shift codes for a period [2:00]
- Schedule 8/8 How to create split shifts between departments [2:42]
- Stewarding Labor cockpit [11:38]
- Timesheet Onboarding [4:14]
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- How to create a pre-populated new plan for Budget or Forecast [3:02]
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- P&L Planning 1/10 Purpose and benefits [2:25]
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- P&L Planning 2/10 Navigation [4:26]
- P&L Planning 3/10 How to build a total [4:29]
- P&L Planning 4/10 Three ways of inserting figures [4:32]
- P&L Planning 5/10 How to add a sub account [1:42]
- P&L Planning 6/10 How to build a constant [2:42]
- P&L Planning 7/10 Staff module [2:48]
- P&L Planning 8/10 How to add a staff member [1:33]
- P&L Planning 9/10 How to revise and submit a forecast [3:01]
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- PMI GoGreen - Cockpit overview [2:49]
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- PMI GoGreen - Water [3:04]
- PMI GoGreen - Missed opportunities [2:57]
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- PMI GoGreen - How to prevent food waste [3:03]
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PMI Release notes
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- GoGreen Task Bank and Cockpit enhancements - 12.24
- Refrigerants and Fuel Tracking for GoGreen cockpits enhancement - 11.24
- KPI targets enhancement - 10.24
- Automatic renewal of constants enhancement - 10.24
- GoGreen manual entry enhancement - 10.24
- CO2 factors enhancement - 09.24
- KPI targets enhancement - 07.24
- NextGen Rooms Live forecast statistics and pickup data enhancement - 07.24
- Date picker enhancement - 07.24
- Update to NextGen Rooms Live forecast - 06.24
- P&L planning accounts enhancement - 06.24
- Weather normalization enhancement - 05.24
- Update to NextGen Rooms Live forecast page: Sense check updates - 05.24
- PMI adoption index enhancement - 05.24
- PMI adoption index enhancements - April 2024
- Consolidation OTB enhancement - April 2024
- Update to NextGen Rooms live forecast page: Personal view options, Mar 2024
- User administration enhancements March 2024
- GM daily digest enhancement March 2024
- PMI Index calculation updates for 2024
- KPI targets enhancement February 2024
- KPI targets enhancement - January 2024
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- GoGreen benchmarking enhancement - 01.23
- GoGreen index calculation enhancement - 04.23
- PMI adoption index: Help videos for measurements enhancement - 02.23
- Activity log enhancement - 07.23
- Arrivals and departures forecast enhancement - 02.23
- KPI upload tool enhancement - 08.23
- GoGreen Food waste cockpit enhancement - 08.23
- GoGreen Doing cockpit enhancement - 06.23
- Benchmarking: PMI Index value updates based on time period selected - 06.23
- GoGreen cockpit: Highlight months missing data on 12 month graph - 07.23
- KPI targets enhancement - 01.23
- Goal distribution tool enhancement - 09.23
- Live forecast enhancement: Editing ARR values -12.23
- User administration release note - 12.23
- New page view of Rooms live forecast - 12.23
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- Benchmarking calculation enhancement - 03.22
- Enhancement to add department type in the P&L report - 03.22
- Print all unmapped accounts on chain level - 03.22
- Printing to Excel and PDF enhancement - 03.22
- Introduction to PMI enhancement
- Room Live forecast – Change to pickup fields - 04.22
- Import status enhancement - 09.22
- Information/calculation rows in PMI schedule - 09.22
- Export to Google Sheets enhancement - 08.22
- PMI Advanced settings – Period locking - 06.22
- GM daily digest enhancements - 09.22
- PMI adoption index: Option to filter and export scores enhancement - 12.22
- Profit center Live forecast: Automatically switch between OTB and revenue driver
- SMART Forecast enhancement - 09.22
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Onboarding
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- Onboarding roles overview
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PMI homepage
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PMI planning
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- How to work with Rooms Budget and forecast
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- Setting productivity targets in PMI
- Express planner overview
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- Express planner calculation explanation with examples
- Compiling revenue streams overview
- How to manually enter a revenue budget in PMI
- How to enter a revenue budget in PMI using Live forecast data
- How to enter a revenue budget in PMI using the Data Upload Centre
- How to set monthly labor productivity and hour targets in PMI
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Cockpit
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- Labor cockpit overview
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- Labor cockpit schedule
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- PMI Schedule: Information, Calculation rows explanation
- Predefined shift codes
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- Revise staff
- Schedule 1/8 Navigation [5:12]
- Schedule 2/8 How to create a labor cockpit schedule [4:29]
- Schedule 3/8 How to add a team member [2:07]
- Schedule 4/8 How to create a shift code [3:30]
- Schedule 5/8 How to add shift codes to team members [3:41]
- Schedule 6/8 How to create a rotating schedule [3:20]
- Schedule 7/8 How to replace shift codes for a period [2:00]
- Schedule 8/8 How to create split shifts between departments [2:42]
- Scheduling
- Split Shifts Between Departments
- The Schedule Tools & View menu
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Live forecast
- Live forecast overview
- How to set up a Live forecast: configuration settings
- Live forecast tools and personal view settings
- PMI prediction explained
- Pickup explanation
- Revenue driver explained
- Segment OTB
- Submit Live Forecast to Forecast (monthly routine)
- NextGen Rooms Live forecast overview
- NextGen Rooms Live forecast: Weekly routine overview
- Rooms live forecast: How to work with auto Live forecast
- NextGen Rooms live forecast: Personal view options
- Rooms Live forecast: Sense check mode explained
- How pickup fields are displayed and used in Room live forecast
- Collaborative Forecasting with PMI Prediction
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Data analysis views
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Administration
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GoGreen
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- Comparative data explained
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- Save changes button explained
- Sense check mode explained
- Unit price explained
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- How to do a monthly forecast routine in NextGen Planning
- GoGreen home page overview
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- Weather normalization overview
- CO2 factors overview
- GoGreen targets explanation
- GoGreen index: How are the measurements calculated?
- Useful links for sustainability and environmental management best practice
- How to make a manual entry in a GoGreen cockpit
- Weather normalization explained
- GoGreen benchmarking enhancement - 01.23
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FAQ
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- How can I see the hours that are imported to PMI?
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- Do I have to change my budget & forecast manually every month?
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- How do I copy to Live forecast?
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- What are Pickup statistics?
- What are covers?
- What are the seasons in PMI?
- What do the pickups show and why are they sometimes negative?
- What is a revenue driver?
- What is the difference between Forecast and Live forecast?
- Why does on the books in PMI not match what we have in our PMS?
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- Can I edit the figures in the Flash report?
- Different view options in the Flash report
- How am I performing compared to my forecast/budget/last year?
- How can I print the report?
- How can I switch between viewing daily and monthly figures?
- How do I check what segments add to the total daily figure?
- How do I edit my covers?
- Why are my room/guest nights wrong?
- What is the Flash Report
- Why is my revenue wrong?
- How is the month-to-date forecast and budget calculated in the Flash report?
- Why are the numbers in the Flash report different from the Live forecast?
- Where can I see account mapping details?
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- How do I know if the mapping is correct?
- How do I know where accounts should go in PMI?
- How do I map the categories in the timekeeping system (TKS)?
- I cannot see my department in Timekeeping System (TKS) mapping. How do I see it?
- There is a position missing in the Timekeeping system mapping. How can I fix this?
- What are Categories in PMI Timekeeping system?
- What is Departments in Timekeeping system (TKS) mapping?
- What is mapping accounts?
- What is mapping – timekeeping system?
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