Choose comparison data that fits the decision and the property’s operating conditions. Last year’s actuals can be useful, but an unusual year or a change in capacity can make them a poor starting point for a new plan.
Choose and record the baseline
For an initial plan, review whether the proposed historical period has complete data and a reasonably comparable business pattern. For a regular forecast update, the previous forecast may preserve useful pricing and cost assumptions, but those assumptions still need review.
Record the reference period or version, why it was selected and any adjustments made. Use the chain’s agreed comparison policy where one exists. Available baseline choices and how they affect the plan depend on the planning workflow and setup.
How do we perform against a normal year, not just last year?
Agree what “normal” means before calculating a difference. It may be a selected historical year or a separately prepared adjusted baseline. Do not assume PMI has automatically normalised the comparison.
Check operating days, available rooms, renovations, unusual events, weekday and holiday patterns, prices and business mix. Decide whether the comparison should show nominal currency values, physical volumes or an explicitly adjusted basis. Explain the adjustments so another person can reproduce the result.
A historical year with similar occupancy is not necessarily comparable if room capacity, service levels or prices have changed.
Why is my budget draft lower than last year?
Identify which planning workflow created the draft and inspect its selected reference, creation date, snapshot and assumptions. Compare the monthly room nights or other volume drivers, average rates, revenue and relevant cost assumptions with the chosen baseline.
Check whether changes were only saved in a draft or also submitted, and whether a comparison contains actuals, forecast values or a mixture. Do not assume the newest Live forecast has automatically replaced the snapshot used to create an earlier draft.
For each material monthly difference, distinguish an intended assumption from a missing value or setup problem. A lower draft can be justified by fewer operating days, reduced capacity or a changed outlook. It should not be increased solely to exceed last year.
Which months have capacity for realistic growth?
Compare the monthly plan with date-effective sellable capacity, closure dates and the relevant demand evidence. Review daily or service-period detail where monthly totals hide peaks.
Illustrative example: a 100-room property is available for 30 days, giving 3,000 available room nights on that basis. A plan for 2,400 room nights leaves 600 room nights below that capacity. This is capacity headroom, not evidence that another 600 room nights can be sold.
Before proposing growth, review booking pace, market or event evidence, expected rates, service requirements and the cost of delivering the additional business. Separate volume growth from price growth. The same percentage increase across every month is unlikely to reflect different seasonal conditions.
Agree the revision
List the months and drivers that need review, the supporting evidence and the proposed assumptions. Have the responsible manager or controller review them before using the normal save and submission process. Respect locked periods and permissions.